播客 003 | 四审特朗普 Trump's Four Indictments, Explained

播客 003 | 四审特朗普 Trump's Four Indictments, Explained

美国前总统特朗普面临四起刑事起诉,他的麻烦有多大?

【聊了什么】

美国前总统特朗普面临四场刑事起诉 —— 纽约封口费案、联邦机密文件案、联邦干涉选举案、乔治亚干涉选举案。我们对这四起案件的时间线、指控、影响进行了详细的盘点和分析,并讨论了这些案件对2024年大选的影响。

【支持我们 Support Us】

如果喜欢这期节目并希望支持我们将节目继续做下去:

众筹平台链接:www.patreon.com/americanroulette

合作投稿邮箱:american.roulette.pod@gmail.com

【时间轴 Timeline】

01:00 对四场刑事起诉的初印象

07:53 纽约封口费案

26:31 联邦机密文件案

49:19 联邦干涉选举案

1:12:08 乔治亚干涉选举案

1:20:10 四场刑事起诉的反应和影响

【我们是谁 Who We Are】

美轮美换是一档深入探讨当今美国政治的中文播客。

美轮美换的前身是“选·美 iAmElection”,一档由游天龙、talich、林垚、庄巧祎等人于2015年创立的中文播客,选·美聚集了一群关心美国政治的学者、律师、媒体人、观察者和爱好者,在2016年大选前后吸引了大量的听众和读者,成为一档现象级的播客。2020年大选前,talich等人重新推出了“美轮美换”,更新了16集。2023年,新一轮美国大选即将开始,我们决定将选·美和美轮美换的传统延续下去,推出新版的“美轮美换”播客。

我们的主播和嘉宾:

Lokin:美国法学院学生,即将成为一名纽约诉讼律师。

曹起曈:美国政治经济学PhD,政治行为研究者。

游天龙:《选·美》栏目创始人之一,美国政治的资深门外汉。

小华:媒体人,美政观察者。

本期节目由小华制作,封面设计来自欢祺,本期的音频编辑是大羊羊。 美轮美换是一档由百花传媒出品的播客。

【 What We Talked About】

Donald Trump, the first ever president (former or current) in U.S. history to be charged with criminal activity, is facing four indictments – the New York State case on hush money payment, a federal case on classified documents, a federal case on election interference, and the Georgia State’s case on election interference. We went over each of the indictments in detail, offering in-depth analysis of the timeline, charges, and implications of these four indictments. Tune in to this episode as we discuss their potential impact on the 2024 elections and find out why this matters to you.

【Support Us】

If you like our show and want to support us, please consider the following:

Support us on Patreon: www.patreon.com/americanroulette

Business Inquiries and fan mail: american.roulette.pod@gmail.com

【Timeline】

01:00 Initial impressions of the four indictments against Trump 07:53 The New York State hush money case
26:31 The federal confidential files case 49:19 The federal election interference case 1:12:08 The Georgia State election interference case 1:20:10 The impact of the four indictments on the upcoming election

【Who We Are】

The American Roulette is a podcast dedicated to helping the Chinese-speaking community understand fast-changing U.S. politics.

The American Roulette’s predecessor is “iAmElection”, a Chinese-language podcast created by Tianlong You, Talich, Yao Lin, and Qiaoy Zhuangi in 2015. The podcast brought together a group of scholars, lawyers, media veterans, observers and enthusiasts who care about American politics. At the height of its popularity, it was featured in the New York Times, and attracted an estimated 70,000 audience who listened each month. For the 2020 election, Talich and others relaunched the podcast as "美轮美换" with 16 new episodes.

In 2023, as the new round of U.S. presidential election is about to begin, we’re building on the legacy of “iAmElection” and “美轮美换” to launch a new podcast that we hope will become your go-to American Politics podcast. We introduce: “美轮美换 The American Roulette.”

Our Hosts and Guests:

Lokin: U.S. law school student, incoming NY litigation lawyer

曹起曈 (Thomas Cao): PhD in political economy, political behavior researcher

游天龙 (Tinalong You): Co-founder of iAmElection, seasoned outside observer of American politics

小华 (Xiao Hua): Journalist, political observer

This episode is produced by Xiao Hua, cover design by Huanqi, our audio editor for this episode is 大羊羊. American Roulette is a part of Baihua Media.

【拓展链接 The Links】

Trump indictment related to hush money payment

Trump indictment related to classified documents

Trump indictment related to election interference

Trump and allies Georgia Indictment

talich(华建平):认识论决定了你我心中的世界 - 116 - 关雅荻·开放对话


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关于 2024 大选的一点补充观察

大选结束,关于大选的分析,王浩岚已经写了说了很多了。根据现有看到的结果,在这里补充一点点。 这次民主党输掉大选,肯定是因为出票少了。当然特朗普得票增加,是他拿到了新支持者,也催出了更多的选民。 在绝大部分州,投票率都有所下降,其中下降比较多的大多是蓝州。这当然也说明了民主党选民的投票积极性在此次大选中比较低。这也符合传统上对于竞选的理解,就是本党选民很少跳转支持对方的总统候选人,他们最多选择放弃投票。 经济、移民和犯罪应该是大选大环境的主要因素。 在大选前密歇根大学的 Survey of Consumers 给出的民调中,独立选民非常悲观,其中,「你的财务状况比一年前是好还是差」,只有 23% 的独立选民认为变好了,这个数据是整个图中,也就是九年来最低的(图中第二排的紫线): 投票率虽然降低,但是也有七个州的投票率相比 2020 年有所上升,这七个州并不正好是七个摇摆州,不过也有四个是摇摆州:按投票率从高到底,是威斯康星、密歇根、宾西法尼亚和佐治亚。蓝墙三州的投票率都有所升高,虽然升高不多,也反映了催票的力度。 大选后两天 Dave Wasserman 曾经发推表示,

By Talich, 美轮美换